Calculate conditional probability for coin flips

Last updated: March 14, 2026

Quick Overview

Given the following scenario about user conversion, calculate the the p-value.

JPMorgan
Analytics & Experimentation
Data Scientist
JPMorgan
March 14, 2026
Data Scientist
Phone Screen
Analytics & Experimentation
Hard

2

5

1,170 solved


Given the following scenario about user conversion, calculate the the p-value.

Analytics questions at JPMorgan evaluate your ability to define metrics, design experiments, and derive actionable insights from data. This Phone Screen question tests your end-to-end analytical thinking.

What the Interviewer Expects
  • Design complex experimentation strategies for tricky scenarios
  • Handle multi-armed bandits, switchback experiments, and quasi-experiments
  • Address long-term effects vs short-term metrics
  • Propose causal inference methods when randomization is not possible
  • Build a measurement framework that connects metrics to business value
  • Discuss organizational experimentation culture and maturity
Key Topics to Cover
Long-term vs short-term metrics
Network effects and interference
Novelty and primacy effects
Segmentation and heterogeneous effects
A/B testing methodology
How to Approach This
  1. Define success metrics carefully. A good metric is measurable, actionable, and aligned with business goals.
  2. Run experiments long enough to account for novelty effects and weekly seasonality.
  3. Use funnel analysis to identify where users drop off for maximum optimization impact.
  4. Segment results by key dimensions (platform, country, user cohort) to catch hidden patterns.
  5. Consider network effects and interference between treatment and control groups.
Possible Follow-up Questions
  • What would you do if a stakeholder wants to end the experiment early because initial results look good?
  • How would you handle interference between treatment and control?
  • What if you discover a bug in the logging during the experiment?
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