Calculate conditional probability for coin flips

Last updated: October 22, 2025

Quick Overview

Given the following scenario about revenue per session, calculate the the sample size needed.

Lyft
Statistics & Math
Data Scientist
Lyft
October 22, 2025
Data Scientist
Technical Screen
Statistics & Math
Hard

15

6

2,714 solved


Given the following scenario about revenue per session, calculate the the sample size needed.

Lyft values data-driven decision making. This Technical Screen question assesses whether you can design experiments, interpret results correctly, and avoid common statistical pitfalls like p-hacking or Simpson's paradox.

What the Interviewer Expects
  • Derive results from first principles when needed
  • Handle complex scenarios with multiple interacting variables
  • Design experiments that account for real-world complications
  • Discuss advanced topics: Bayesian methods, causal inference, resampling
  • Connect statistical concepts to business decision-making
  • Identify subtle errors in reasoning (Simpson's paradox, survivorship bias)
Key Topics to Cover
Causal inference basics
Power analysis and sample size calculation
Central Limit Theorem
Confidence intervals and significance levels
Conditional probability and Bayes theorem
How to Approach This
  1. Define your hypotheses (H0 and H1) clearly before performing any test.
  2. Calculate required sample size BEFORE running an experiment, using power analysis.
  3. Remember the Central Limit Theorem: sample means become approximately normal with large n.
  4. Watch for Simpson's paradox. Always segment data by key dimensions.
  5. Distinguish between statistical significance and practical significance.
Possible Follow-up Questions
  • What alternative statistical method could you use here?
  • What assumptions does this test make, and how would you validate them?
  • What if the sample size is very small?
  • How would you design a follow-up experiment based on these results?
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Sample Answer
Problem Formulation

We need to calculate the sample size required to estimate the conditional probability of revenue per session for Lyft drivers after a series of coin flips representing different promotional strategies...

Solution Approach
  1. Define Parameters: Identify the parameters such as the significance level (alpha, typically 0.05), power (1 - beta, typically 0.8), expected effect size (difference in revenue), and the standar...

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