Calculate conditional probability for user retention
Last updated: April 12, 2026
Quick Overview
Given the following scenario about user conversion, calculate the the p-value.
Mastercard
April 12, 20261
4
98 solved
Given the following scenario about user conversion, calculate the the p-value.
This analytics question from Mastercard's Onsite tests your ability to think critically about data. The interviewer expects you to consider confounding variables, selection bias, and the difference between correlation and causation.
What the Interviewer Expects
- Design a rigorous experiment with proper randomization and sample size calculation
- Define primary and guardrail metrics with clear rationale
- Address novelty effects, network effects, and interference
- Segment results appropriately and identify heterogeneous treatment effects
- Propose follow-up analyses when results are ambiguous
Key Topics to Cover
How to Approach This
- Define success metrics carefully. A good metric is measurable, actionable, and aligned with business goals.
- Run experiments long enough to account for novelty effects and weekly seasonality.
- Use funnel analysis to identify where users drop off for maximum optimization impact.
- Segment results by key dimensions (platform, country, user cohort) to catch hidden patterns.
- Consider network effects and interference between treatment and control groups.
Possible Follow-up Questions
- How would you handle an experiment where the control and treatment groups are different sizes?
- How would you handle seasonality in your experiment?
- What if you discover a bug in the logging during the experiment?
- What would you do if a stakeholder wants to end the experiment early because initial results look good?
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