Calculate expected value for coin flips

Last updated: July 13, 2025

Quick Overview

Given the following scenario about user conversion, calculate the the p-value.

Roblox
Analytics & Experimentation
Data Scientist
Roblox
July 13, 2025
Data Scientist
Phone Screen
Analytics & Experimentation
Easy

7

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3,389 solved


Given the following scenario about user conversion, calculate the the p-value.

Roblox asks this during the Phone Screen to assess your experimentation skills. They want to see how you define success metrics, design controlled experiments, and interpret results with appropriate statistical rigor.

What the Interviewer Expects
  • Define clear success metrics aligned with business goals
  • Propose a basic experimental design with control and treatment groups
  • Interpret results correctly and draw reasonable conclusions
  • Identify obvious confounding variables
Key Topics to Cover
Long-term vs short-term metrics
Funnel analysis and cohort analysis
Simpson's paradox and ecological fallacy
Network effects and interference
Guardrail metrics
Metric definition and success criteria
How to Approach This
  1. Define success metrics carefully. A good metric is measurable, actionable, and aligned with business goals.
  2. Run experiments long enough to account for novelty effects and weekly seasonality.
  3. Use funnel analysis to identify where users drop off for maximum optimization impact.
  4. Segment results by key dimensions (platform, country, user cohort) to catch hidden patterns.
  5. Consider network effects and interference between treatment and control groups.
Possible Follow-up Questions
  • What if the experiment shows a positive short-term effect but you suspect a negative long-term impact?
  • How would you handle an experiment where the control and treatment groups are different sizes?
  • How would you handle interference between treatment and control?
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